Defrag Blog

Inspired by recent theories around the nature of the time-space continuum, specifically that the past crystallizes out of the future, I thought I’d “wrap-up” Defrag by trying to look ahead to 2010 — and the in process of doing so offer up some “what I learned” thoughts.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t begin by saying that I’m continually amazed at and grateful to the folks that make up the “audience” (more properly, “participants”) at Defrag. The energy, enthusiasm and knowledge that all of you bring to the table is boundless. Every Defrag leaves me with constructive criticism alongside with your compliments –and I treasure both. We work all year long to exceed your expectations, and that will never change.

One of the key things I’ve learned from the folks at Defrag is that the group that assembles, for whatever reason, is roughly 12 months ahead of the pack in their thinking. And that plays into what I’ll say below.

So, where are we headed? In order to answer that, I want to frame things in the context of the macro-economy.

Prior to this year’s Defrag, I argued that we were in the beginning stages of a “productivity boom.” This productivity boom encompassed four parts (in my mind): 1) the internal collaborative solutions; 2) the externally facing solutions (social media); 3) the rise of the application marketplace in the enterprise; and 4) the imperative for enterprise IT to become agile (i.e., move to the cloud) in order to support 1, 2, and 3. I stand by that argument. In fact, Defrag only reinforced my belief in the fact that this productivity boom will play out over the next 3-5 years.

However, the macro-economic context that I said was amplifying this boom (the jobless recovery) remains in place, and leads me directly to what I think will happen in 2010. My personal macro-economic view is pretty static for 2010: things get better, things get worse, things get better as we roll back and forth through contradictory numbers for most of the year. While we might see an uptick in the recovery in the spring/summer timeframe, I expect that uptick to be short-lived — with a roll-over turn down erasing that uptick by the end of the year. Basically, I expect 2010 to be an ongoing refrain of Q3/Q4 in 2009. That said…

Over the next twelve months, I expect the following three things to occur: 1) “enterprise 2.0″ vendors will continue to learn that they must reconcile the internal/external solutions if they are going to truly address the needs of their enterprise customers; 2) there will NOT be a lot of growth in the “enterprise 2.0″ marketplace; 3) the innovators in the space will move aggressively toward the idea of a “service platform.” (Hat tip to Mike Gotta on this.)

Let me expound a bit:

1) Enterprise 2.0 vendors will learn that they must reconcile the internal and external solutions: Notice I say “learn,” not implement. The bottom line here is that any perception of difference between external solutions (social media) and internal solutions (collaboration) is just that - a difference in perception alone. Enterprises will not see the true ROI of these solutions unless vendors can offer them the “unified theory” of interaction and collaboration. I expect lots of “partnerships” that will see external and internal vendors working together in 2010. And I think that the core of where these solutions head will be around analytics and BI.

2) There will not be a lot of growth in the “enterprise 2.0″ marketplace in 2010: If anything, we’ll see consolidation in the market, as vendors either hold off on enterprise-wide implementation, or begin to enter the trough of disillusionment via implementations that are coming to fruition. What I’m NOT saying here is that enterprise 2.0 is a failure, or invalid, or anything like that. What I AM saying is that 2010 will not be some year of explosive growth/adoption for the solutions *as they currently stand.*

3) The innovators will move toward “service platforms”: the bleeding edge of this marketplace (be it external or internal) is going to move toward service platforms. Being a “platform” is a much different proposition than being an application, and the transition will destroy several companies. However, I think the move in that direction is nearly inevitable. Think “platform.” Just keep thinking “platform” — and how those platforms can integrate/spawn service marketplaces. Much more on this over the next year (obviously).

That’s my takeaway from 2009. My excitement for this space remains unabated heading into 2010, but I think a good dose of realism is called for when thinking about the “market” as a whole. Still, the innovators will innovate - and inevitably, they’ll be at Defrag 2010.

Yes, I know I owe everybody a “defrag wrap-up post” — and it’s coming. Believe it or not, it really does take my brain about a month to reboot after the conference (maybe I’m just slow that way). So, I’m coming back on-line and have some thoughts gleaned from this year’s show - stay tuned.

But that’s not why I’m blogging today. Nope, today is because I need you, dear reader, to help me find a solution for a friend.

My friend dropped me an email asking if I knew of any solutions out there that would help with nefarious evildoers that *pose* as his company on various social networks and use that false pretense to get information from his company’s customers (sensitive, transaction-related, financial information)….ie, is there a “anti-phishing” for social networks solution?

I don’t know of any off of the top of my head. I know of plenty “social media monitoring” tools, but have no idea if those tools have this early warning/alert capability that he’s looking for.

If you know of companies that do this, please email me (enorlin AT mac.com) or leave a comment. This is literally a “I’m ready to purchase this” situation, so if it turns out that this solution doesn’t exist….well, I just gave you a product idea, didn’t I?

People asked for it, and here it is - the Defrag soundtrack:

Yes, we’re working on the Sons of Defrag t-shirts

Sometimes the stuff that happens “behind the scenes” of Defrag is really worth sharing. What follows is the email that Paul Kedrosky sent to his panel participants today (posted with permission). Enjoy:

Folks –

Good to e-meet you all.

For our session we’re going to have some fun next week by having a sprightly discussion about the news. If you’ve watched Around the Horn on ESPN, you’ll have the idea. I’m going to toss something out, probably loudly and insultingly to someone or something, and then we’ll all run to positions as far apart from anything defensible as we can, and commence the sparring and witty repartee.

Some sample topics:
- Twitter has proven that revenue is bad for valuation. What are you doing to make your revenue model more mysterious? What advice would you give Dick?

- Venture capitalists are people who wanted to be bankers, but lacked the personality. Discuss. Be sure to use examples. Extra points if they live in Colorado, or are named “Lindzon”.

- If you have a pre-money valuation of $4m, then $1m invested, but a 15% ESOP, what is the real pre-money of your venture? Extra points for converting to euros.

I’ll also touch on some stuff in the general news too, like the 60 Minutes story this weekend about how hackers tried to blow up Brazil’s electrical grid.

At the end of it all I’ll completely arbitrarily award the Kedrosky Prize (Award?) to the person who made me laugh the most toward the end the session. Yes, my memory is that bad.

Look forward to it.

P.

A caveat on this post: I hesitated to write this - mostly because I think it’s very easy for the author (me) to cross a line of being provocative for provocative-ness’ sake, and for readers/commenters (you) to misinterpret my meaning here. Please be gentle.

There were a few tweets flying around at JiveWorld last week about how social software is all about “inclusion.” I want to push back on that a bit. Mostly, because I think social software, insofar as it’s about community formation has, as it’s first act (and I’ll explain this a bit), *exclusion*.

I think it’s pretty commonly accepted in sociological circles that “communities” (ie, groups) form via an act of exclusion. That is to say that all groups define “us” as against something else (”them”) by necessity. Even in the case where a “group” tries to explicitly eschew this implicit act of exclusion, the very act of doing so (saying “we are defined by NOT being exclusionary”) is an exclusionary act.

This, of course, leaves a bit of a bad taste in people’s collective mouths. And rightfully so. None of us *wants* to be exclusionary, as our collective histories include so many atrocities and bad acts based upon severe acts of exclusion.

That said, when I heard the “social software is an inclusionary act” meme surface, my gut revolted. And for a reason. It’s simply not true. The first defining act of community is, by definition, exclusionary. This is not to say that communities can’t be “open,” only that there’s always a “them” for our “us.”

So, the next time you hear “social software” - remember, “social” often means community, and community necessarily operates via mechanisms of exclusion.

The same holds true of conferences. Conferences are exclusionary vehicles. Even unconferences - much as they’d like to be inclusionary are exclusionary (just by nature of the fact that some people aren’t there). Attendees at conferences implicitly form a community. In fact, some conferences are so conspicuous in their exclusionary practices as to be “off the record” and “invite only” (The Lobby, for instance). And the highest end tech conferences have an air of real exclusion (D and the Web2.0 Summit come to mind).

So, my friends, won’t you join our community? Everyone is welcome, but if you don’t attend, you really won’t be part of the community.

We’re twelve days from Defrag, and it’s definitely not too late to get on board this rocket ship. The conversations are what make Defrag special. This was highlighted for me this morning on Twitter, when I saw Dave Fauth tweet: “Defrag is like no other conference I’ve ever been too. amazing people/conversations usually lasting way late into the night.”

Look, I can go on and on about the agenda, the people, the content, the logistics, everything - but the truth of the matter is that I cannot convey the totality of the experience if you’re not there. All I can do is speak in analogies. Remember, that one time you were in college, having a discussion at the student union (of coffeehouse or bar) about some arcane political or technical or philosophical thing, and all of sudden it seemed like a whole new world opened up and pregnant possibility was all that you could see?

Yea, it’s a bit like that. Without the keg stands, illegal substances and homework. Okay, maybe there will be keg stands.

Register today. Do something for the future of your career and community. Join us.

When I woke up this morning, I found my brain thinking (without me, apparently) about way back in the 90s. Do you remember when web pages really were static? When it was all html? Do you remember the debates about whether or not companies like General Motors even *needed* a website? (For all of you youngsters out there, there was a point in time where big companies did not believe they needed a website.) Do you remember people finally saying that having a website as a business was like “being listed in the yellow pages”….I mean, SERIOUSLY - do you remember how stupid and crazy it all sounded?

No one could’ve seen coming what we’ve got today. Dynamic, feed-driven, real-time, distributed, AMAZING web-based tools.

But here’s the thing: in ten years, the stuff we’ve got today is going to look as *silly* as the idea that GM might not even need a website. Truly. Bank on it.

And I’m willing to bet that the next 10 years will be an even *bigger* upheaval in the corporation (specifically, in the IT “department”) than the last 10 years. Hell, the last ten years aren’t gonna look like *jack* compared to the coming ten years. There might not even *be* an “IT department” in ten years.

Case studies won’t help you here, my friend — you’ve entered the zone of the unknowable future.

But there’s good news (insert famous quote) - the future is here, it’s just unevenly distributed. In other words, you can find hints, rhymes, tips, and winks. Oh, they’re out there. Clues to your very survival.

All you need do is surround yourself with amazing ideas, interactions, conversations. All you need do is break the bay area echo chamber. All you need to do is make sure that your voice is contributing to this future that we’re all already building.

Now *where*, I wonder, might you be able to do that?

Can I make this any clearer?

Uploaded with plasq’s Skitch!

Now, register and join us.

We’re 19 days out, and I’m swamped - so for today, I want to point to Sameer Patel’s post about why you should come to Defrag. I’ll quote Sameer at length:

I’m going to spare you a diatribe about why its a great event and distill it down to five reasons, (or fragments) that make me go back and why this an awesome event for the enterprise folks out there:

1. Its about debating solutions to big big business and economic value challenges that will consume us all over the next 12-24 months. That applies to the buy-side as well as the sell side.

2. Its about the ramifications of eventual large scale adoption of a lot of what a serious IT executive will deem to be well, “cutesy” ideas today (e.g. Real Time Enterprise).

3. A cut to the chase discussion on which consumer trends we see and use today might one day be enterprise worthy. Remember when people laughed at the concept of ‘Facebook for the Enterprise’? Yep, that probably came up at Defrag two events ago.

4. Little talk-to-the-crowd panels. Everyone is deemed too intelligent and has an equal voice. You’ll spend more time talking to the person sitting next to you than you will listening to someone on stage. Guaranteed.

5. Its frightfully practical stuff. No fluff. All actionable thinking that makes you look at work differently when you leave. And makes you want to come right back the next year.

Discuss things 18-24 months before the rest of the world stumbles upon them, interact with amazing people, walk away with your head filled with no-fluff practicality. Great stuff, Sameer!

Be sure to join us — use the code “ejn1″ for $200 off!

Defrag is now officially three weeks away, and I’m starting to feel like a kid on Christmas eve.

But not so much the kid that I miss interesting developments - like this piece from the Gartner Symposium about IT falling “behind the curve.” Gartner argues that there’s a “fundamental mismatch” between what IT is good at and what is happening on the internet. The result is IT departments everywhere losing a grip on what’s actually going on. The “digital natives” are on iPhones, google, facebook, twitter, etc — whether you even KNOW it or not (forget liking). You no longer have 18 months to roll out a collaboration suite. People are routing around the steady pace of the IT department and “rolling their own.”

This is all really just a continuation of what happened when Salesforce.com first launched. IT people everywhere were simply STUNNED by the idea that Billy Joe down in business unit X had simply *bought himself* a license, uploaded sales data, and started using a service that no one had vetted OR approved. Guess what? That’s now everything. And it’s exploding. And it’s only gonna get worse.

The big question in the SaaS world for the last few years has been “how to keep control” - where control means compliance, security, auditing, etc. You can just feel that wave of compliance/audit/security sweeping toward all things in the social computing world (it may be the thing that pushes us into the trough). Look for it next year.

See, and that right there is why if you’re on the fence about Defrag, you should hop off and come join us. Because if you’re anywhere CLOSE to thinking about these issues (and how they intersect with so many other technology touch points), then you need to start seeing what’s coming next.

I’ll try to avoid the “rah-rah” speech, other than to say just how proud and excited I am about this year’s agenda. If you haven’t taken 5 minutes to just look through it, please do so. It’s not your typical agenda.

Come to defrag and find yourself stretched, grounded, inspired and challenged, but mostly, find yourself ahead of the curve. Join us.